Sunday, July 24, 2005

 

Super CoffeeMix - A Case Study

Updates
  1. Added in Q305 Results on 15-Jan-06 (Released on 8-Nov-05)

  2. Sold my entire stake on 22-Aug-05 after it went xd. Reasons,
    • Switch to other stocks as mkt has dropped but not Super CoffeeMix
    • Price of Super CoffeeMix is artificially supported due to Mr Goi's purchases
    • NAV is $0.334, may drop to that level without support of Mr Goi
    Will still continue to monitor and buy back in the future (see next Q results or if price drop to NAV)


  3. Added in 1H05 data into table on 8-Aug-05. For my comments on the results, see blog, Bullrun

Background
I have been holding Super CoffeeMix shares since the mid-90s @ $0.79. I had a quick look on their past 5 years results and ratios from the periodical 'Shares Investment' and their 2004 Annual Report and had bought @ $0.44 on 22-Jul to average my cost down to $0.515. This stock is very illiquid and the price range is $0.405~$0.465 for the past 1yr.

This study will help me decide on whether to add Super CoffeeMix to my portfolio or to get rid of it completely.

Financial Data
All the data in this case study are extracted fm the Super CoffeeMix 2004 Annual Report. Some of the figures in the fllwg table are extracted fm the periodical "Shares Investment",

Super CoffeeMix2001200220032004Q105Q205Q3051H05
Margin (%)7.787.5812.0814.4920.6814.35--

17.65

ROE (%)5.735.649.3111.96-----------------
DIV (S$)0.00630.0080.0080.012-----0.006-----0.006
EPS (S$)0.0140.0140.0260.0370.0160.0100.01080.026
Turnover (S$M)117.25116.22143.76176.8844.4540.9150.94785.36
Cash + Bank Bal (S$M)?14.9035.3535.44??33.08933.38
Short Term Investment (S$M)?---??---
Current Liabilities - Bank Borrowings (S$M)?7.719.541.538??2.1820.654
Long Term Bank Borrowings (S$M)?14.9516.292.457??1.9413.231
NAV / Share (S$)?0.2430.266

0.311

0.3280.3340.34170.334
Issued Shares = 493,662,980 @ $0.05 Par

Substantial Hldgs Highlights

Comments

Conclusions
Be warned, the above has been created to justify my recent additional buy of Super CoffeeMix shares. This will be intended for long term hold as Super CoffeeMix looks like a growth stock. Daily trading volume is very low, so it's not recommended for those who may need to sell in the short term as you may not be able to sell at a good price.

My Action

Share Price


Disclaimer : Use the above at your own risk! We'll not be responsible for any losses incurred but you can give us credit if you make money :D

Addendum

Hmmm.... Without the support of Mr Goi, I think Super CoffeeMix share price would have dropped lower :D


Sunday, July 17, 2005

 

Suntec REIT - A Case Study

Background
After hitting a peak of $1.32 on 6-7 Jun, the price of Suntec shares has dropped gradually, till an intra-day low of $1.15 on 15-Jul. This study will look into possible reasons for the drop by examining,

  1. Why are there so many impending REIT launches (MapleTree, Prime, CentrePoint)?
  2. Are REITs in general losing market favour, with the yield now 4-5%?
  3. Are investors switching from Suntec REIT to other REITs? If so, what are the reasons?
  4. Are investors dumping Suntec REITs in anticipation of the newer REITs that will be launched with better yields, like Mapletree?

Why So Many Impending REIT Launches?
When REIT was first started in Singapore, the yields were much higher at 7-8% and they were offered at a discount to NAV. Even then, there were few takers and it took 1-2 years before investors started to chase the prices up, till the current yield of 4-5% and even at a premium to NAV. The reasons for the surge in market interest in REITs are likely,

  1. Poor stock market returns prior to 2005
  2. Low bank interest rate (1.5% for FD even now)
  3. Good track record of the pioneer REITs, CMT and A-REIT

After CMT and A-REIT, the market demand have been positive for subsequent IPOs of CCT (issued only to Capitaland shareholders), Fortune and Suntec. New units issued by exisiting REITs had also been easily abosrbed by investors.

Thus, many organisations have announced their intent to launch REITs and this includes MapleTree, Prime and CentrePoint Properties. I also believe many organisations are expecting the good times to end soon (for REITs) as we see improving GDP growth (which means investors may switch to growth stocks) and increasing Fed interest rates (4-5% REIT yield becomes unattractive if bank interest rate goes up) ie. they will not be able to price their IPO as high if they delay it.

Are REITs Losing Market Favour?
Although Suntec prices has been dropping, that of CMT and A-REIT has been appreciating while those of CCT (despite Temasek off-loading their stake to the mkt) and Fortune (despite new units being issued) had remained steady.

The forecasted yield for the local REITs is 4-5%. Suntec yield is the 2nd best (Fortune is top as it's considered riskier with assets in HK) at aro' 5% for current mkt price of $1.16.

REIT Yield

Source : UOBKayHian (posted at Bullrun)

But, I think 4-5% yield is getting unattractive. With T-Bills now at 2%, the margin of safety is only 2-3%. The only way for the yield to improve would be for the REIT to increase their rental or to acquire yield acreditive assets. The former will need time to carry out as most tenants are on 2-3yrs lease and would very much depend on the health of the economy. For the latter, the impact on the yield gets smaller as the REIT grows in size. The other way would be for the share price to drop, which is what is happening now with Suntec.

Thus, watch out for the bank interest rate. If the risk-free rate were to go up further, you may be left carrying the baby :D

Are Investors Switching from Suntec REIT to Other REITs?
It would appear so as only the price of Suntec is dropping. In terms of biz structure, the closest competitor is CMT, with its focus on shopping malls (Suntec has a portfolio of Malls + Office). The different price direction of Suntec and CMT does appear to indicate that investors are switching from Suntec to CMT.

There were also recent news that CMT may acquire Bugis Junction and thus regain its No.1 REIT position from Suntec. CMT also enjoys having a strong parent, whereas Suntec do not have any dominant shareholder. In another country, investors would have love Suntec for the same fact :D

I believe the price drop in Suntec is also likely due to their silence (2 weeks now) on their recent acquisitions. Investors who are sitting on good profits from the $1 IPO launch are likely taking profit due to the uncertainties of,

  1. Are Suntec over-paying for the acquisitions?
  2. How much yield is it acreditive?
  3. How are Suntec going to fund the new acquisitions? How many more new shares to be offered and at what discounts?

Based on publicly available info, I believe the above are the main reasons why many investors are switching from Suntec to CMT.

Are investors dumping Suntec REITs in anticipation of the newer REITs that will be launched with better yield?
There will likely be an impact, esp. if the newer REITs offer 6-6.5%, which is better than what Suntec yield now. In fact, it should impact all currently listed REITs which have lower yields. But, I think what will likely happen is that the new REITs' price will appreciate when it's listed till the yield is closer to 5%.

Currently, most of the listed REITs (except Suntec vs CMT) are focussed on the different property sectors and thus enjoys some share price protection. However, the impending launches of newer REITs will definitely change the landscape.

Thus, the Shopping Malls REITs does appear to be under a bigger threat as investors are going to be spoiled for choices. We may even be seeing this impact now as investors appears to be favouring CMT vs Suntec.

Announcements / News

  1. 22-Apr ($1.22) : Metro accepts Suntec offer for Ngee Ann City
  2. 27-Apr ($1.22) : Suntec REIT's DPU Exceeds Forecast by 5.7%
  3. 4-May ($1.23) : ERGO offer accepted by Metro
  4. 6/7-Jun ($1.32) : Peaked. Run up fm 1-Jun @ $1.24
  5. 10-Jun ($1.28) : Mr Li Ka Shing sold Suntec till 4.947% (63,774,300). Dropped till 13-Jun @ $1.25
  6. 15-Jun ($1.25) : Fortune Real Estate Investment Trust ("Fortune REIT"), is issuing 318,796,148 new units in Fortune REIT ("New Units") at a price of HK$6.23 per New Unit.
  7. 17-Jun ($1.25) : Temasek offloads CCT @ $1.50
  8. 21-Jun ($1.25) : Suntec REIT may be feeling added pressure on a report in the Business Times that its tenant UBS has signed a lease for 10 floors or 200,000 square feet of the 50-story north tower of the One Raffles Quay office building that is being constructed at the new Marina Bay downtown area. Dropped to $1.21 on 29-Jun
  9. 29-Jun ($1.21) : BT reports Suntec REIT is close to buying 1 bln sgd worth of office and commercial properties from Wing Tai and City Developments
  10. 30-Jun ($1.22): Suntec REIT said it is buying a total of 12 properties from City Developments and Wing Tai for about 1.03 bln sgd, making it the largest real estate investment trust by asset size and net lettable area in the city state
  11. 7-Jul ($1.22) : Ergo is on track to raise about S$500m selling shares in the new Prime REIT next month. The listing is likely to be in mid-August. Prime REIT owns about S$1.3b of retail and office properties in Orchard Road. Prime REIT's gearing is likely to be about 31% (Debt/ Assets) and the trust will likely distribute 5.11 cents per share in 2005 and 5.24 cents per share in 2006.
  12. 12-Jul : BT report on CMT possible deal on acquiring Bugis Junction. Price dropped fm $1.22 on 11-Jul close to a $1.16 on 15-Jul
  13. 15-Jul : News report that MapleTree will do a press release on 18-Jul

Comments

  1. Looking at the Price vs News data, it'd appear that Suntec prices ran up fm $1.24 on 1-Jun and peaked at $1.32 on 6/7-Jun while Mr Li is selling down his stake. When it was announced on 10-Jun that Mr Li's stake is below 5%, the price drops back to original levels of $1.25 on 13-Jun.

  2. The BT report on 21-Jun abt Suntec losing a key tenant also appears to cause Suntec price to drop further to $1.21 on 29-Jun. The arrest on the drop is due to another BT report on Suntec being close to acquiring seets from CDL and Wing Tai, which was subsequently confirmed on 30-Jun.

  3. Another round of price decline started on 11-Jul fm $1.22 to $1.16 on 15-Jul. This appears to be due to the BT report on 12-Jul abt CMT possibly acquiring Bugis Junction and regaining the No.1 REIT position.

  4. Both Suntec & CMT dropped on 15-Jul and this could have been triggered by the news of the MapleTree press release this coming 18-Jul.

If you look at the Suntec vs CMT price chart below, there appears to be a delayed inverse correlation starting from 4-Jul when CMT starts going up while that of Suntec started to decline on 5-Jul followed by a sharper decline on 11-Jul.

It does appear that the Prime REIT announcement on 7-Jul and the report on 12-Jul on CMT possibly acquiring Bugis Junction are the main causes of the recent price decline of Suntec.

The news of MapleTree planning a news release on 18-Jul may have contributed to the decline on 15-Jul.

The earlier price boost in B/Jun followed by its decline is likely triggered by the selling of Mr Li's stake in Suntec to below 5%.

Hmmm... BT also seems to have a very strong influence on the price of Suntec :D

Suntec vs CMT

Reference : REIT News Posted at BullRun

Disclaimer : The above conclusions are drawn using publicly available info. I may also have missed out other available info. Please do not solely rely on the above to make any investment decision.


 

Raffles Holdings - A Case Study

Background

I received the fllwg email fm my Philips broker on 27-Jun,

SINGAPORE (XFN-ASIA) - BNP Paribas said it has an "overweight" rating for the hotel and leisure sector here, as it is expected to benefit from increased tourist arrivals this year. "Latest tourism data showed visitor arrivals were up 8.1 pct year-on-year in the first five months of 2005, with room rates up 10.6 pct on average. Expect stronger numbers for the remaining months of 2005," BNP analyst Vincent Yek said in a note. Yek said that the current prices of stocks like City Developments Ltd, CapitaLand and Ascott Group have not fully factored-in expectations of further improvement in hotel room rates, occupancy levels and revenue per available room (RevPAR). "We should see values for hotels improving over the next three years as earnings pick up," he said.

Yek said that Raffles Holdings Ltd remains his top pick in the sector, and that he has raised its target price to 0.93 sgd from 0.81 sgd. "Based on our own market survey, the 4-star and 5-star hotels' RevPAR improved faster than average industry RevPAR. Raffles Holdings owns mainly 5-star hotels and should see revenue improve faster than industry average for first half 2005," Yek said.

At 11.11 am, Raffles Holdings was down 0.015 sgd at 0.665, Capitaland was down 0.02 at 2.34, City Developments was down 0.15 at 7.70 and Ascott was down 0.005 at 0.46.

I have Raffles Hldgs stocks since IPO in Dec-99 @ $0.85 and a subsequent buy @ $0.76. With the capital reduction exercise of $0.18 last year, my average cost is $0.625. I thot' I was underwater till I checked and found out that I have not factored in the capital reduction of last year :D

The purpose of this study is thus to decide whether to hold and even build up my holdings or to get rid of it entirely.

Financial Data

All the data in this case study are extracted fm the Raffles Hldgs 2004 Annual Report. Some of the figures in the fllwg table are extracted fm the periodical "Shares Investment",

Raffles Hldgs2001200220032004Q105
Margin (%)68.1115.8917.2414.0112.32
ROE (%)13.052.392.843.82-----
DIV (S$)0.040.020.020.02-----
EPS (S$)0.1190.0220.0260.0290.005
Turnover (S$M)358.6385.3420.1527.8138.6
Cash + Bank Bal (S$M)??249.4126.9-
Short Term Investment (S$M)??121.30-
Current Liabilities - Bank Borrowings (S$M)??95.399.9-
Long Term Bank Borrowings (S$M)??181.7267.4-
Net Tangible Asset / Share (S$)0.890.890.91

0.74

-

Note : Capital Reduction $375Mil ($0.18/shr) on May-04

Issued Shares = 2,085,980,852 @ $0.32 par

Substantial Hldgs :

Highlights

Comments

Conclusion

Raffles Hldgs appear to be a better choice as compared to HPL in terms of most of the fundamentals analysed above. HPL however offers a much better discount to NAV. Thus, the share price of Raffles Hldgs may go up on improving fundamentals while that of HPL may go up due to potential unlocking of its NAV.

Here, you have to choose between an outfit controlled by a GLC (or TLC) and managed by hired professionals vs one controlled and run by family.

The negative abt Raffles Hldgs is the large holding by Capitaland of ~60% and the small free float of ~28% (altho' it may be mitigated by the large nos. of issued shares).

Action

Based on this short study, I'm currently more inclined to not only hold on to my existing shares but will likely add on, for long term hold.

Announcements

  1. 27-Jun : Raffles City Shopping Centre Embarks on 50,000 sq ft B1 Extension
  2. 28-Apr : Q1-05 Results

Raffles Hldgs

Disclaimer : Use the above at your own risk! We'll not be responsible for any losses incurred but you can give us credit if you make money :D


Thursday, July 14, 2005

 

HPL - A Case Study

NOTE : As of 14-Jul, I hv sold off my stake at $1.43 and will suspend this study unless HPL drops below $1.30 :D

Background

HPL, at $1.37 is trading at a 38.6% discount to NAV ($2.23). Trading volume is usually low and the stable price is aro' $1.20 for the most part of the year. Over the years, there has been regular spike up in volumes and price, esp. when rumours arises of the Quek family (Hong Leong Group) planning to do a takeover of HPL. The Queks now holds a deemed interest of 21.24%. Recently, with the demise of Mr Fu YS, we start to see another run up of HPL, which closes at $1.46 on 11-Jul.

This study will try to examine the following,

  1. Is HPL undervalued, as per its large discount to NAV
  2. Is there a likelihood of a change in ownership, esp. with the passing of Mr Fu

Financial Data

All the data in this case study are extracted fm the HPL 2004 Annual Report. Some of the figures in the fllwg table are extracted fm the periodical "Shares Investment",

HPL2001200220032004Q105
Margin (%)12.207.935.1211.869.60
ROE (%)4.321.750.512.17-----
DIV (S$)0.0250.0250.0250.05-----
EPS (S$)0.0860.0350.0100.0470.010
Turnover (S$M)511.6348.2279.8320.171.2
Cash + Bank Bal (S$M)??84.3563.57-
Short Term Investment (S$M)??6.433.89-
Current Liabilities - Bank Borrowings (S$M)??28.3943.42-
Long Term Bank Borrowings (S$M)??543.4470.2-
Net Current Asset (S$M)??78.5353.26-

Issued Shares = 453,024,410 @ $1 Par

Substantial Hldgs :

Highlights

Comments

Preliminary Conclusion

The Queks are unlikely to make a move soon as they are busy with the takeover of BIL. Also, like what the papers mentioned, the estate of Mr Peter Fu will take a while to settle. Thus recent price run-up may not be sustainable, so it's better to sell at $1.4x and try to buy back at $1.2x if I can find good reasons to hold this stock. Initial comparison with a similar co., Stamford Land (am vested in CPF, got it fm split of HSH to Stamford + SSC long ago but is below split price since then) seems to show Stamford may be a better stock to buy! I always thought HPL is a much bigger co. but looking at their turnover, that doesn't seem so.

I was vested at $1.90 fm Sep-97. Only a very small hldgs and I can't even remember why I bought it back then. But sold off on 14-Jul-05 after drawing the above preliminary conclusion.

Possible Future Scenarios :

  1. Fu Junior sells off stakes to Ong
    Comment - Prob bad for shareholders with HPL share price at status quo

  2. Fu Junior sells off stake to Quek family
    Comment - May be good for shareholders as Quek unlocks value in HPL shares

  3. HPL gets taken over by/merge with M&C or other Hotel co.
    Comment - Will definitely be good for shareholders but unlikely to happen

Announcements :

  1. 3-Jul ($1.29) : Demise of Founder and Chairman, Mr Peter Fu Yun Siak on 2-Jul
    - $1.29 on 1-Jul rises to $1.35 (4-Jul) and continue to rise and peak at $1.46 (11-Jul)
  2. 19-May ($1.32) : Sale of Concorde Hotel, Gold Coast @ A$ 27.5 million. The Company is of the view that it is timely for the HPL Group to realize its investment in the Property and deploy the funds for other new investment opportunities. Suseem will record a total gross gain of approximately A$ 11.2 million (or approximately S$14 million based on the current exchange rate of A$ 1.00 : S$ 1.25) arising from the sale of the Property.
    - $1.35 (20-May) and peak at $1.37 (24-May)
  3. 11-May ($1.38) : Unaudited First Quarter Financial Statement for the Period Ended 31 March 2005
    - $1.42 (12-May)
  4. 3-May ($1.47) : Withdrawal of bid for IR
    - $1.52 (4-May) before sliding down till low of $1.18 (6-Jun)
  5. 26-Apr ($1.57) : Announcement of Joint Bid for IR with Metro
    - Run up fm B/05 and peaked at $1.60 (27-Apr)
  6. 23-Feb ($1.29) : Full Year Audited Results
    - On the uptrend since B/05 and continue to rise after announcement
  7. 8-Nov-04 ($1.06) : 3rd Q Results
    - Price goes up and peaked at$1.20 (3-Dec)

HPL 3-Mth Price Chart

HPL 1-Yr Price Chart


Disclaimer : Use the above at your own risk! We'll not be responsible for any losses incurred but you can give us credit if you make money :D


 

Metro - A Case Study

Note :

  1. 15-Feb-05 : Adding in data for Q305 Results
  2. 13-Nov-05 : Added in data for Q206 Results
  3. 16-Aug-05 : Added in data for Q106 Results

Background

Metro, at $0.515 is trading at a 37.8% discount to NAV ($0.828) and has a large cash hoard. Trading volume is usually low and the share price is bound within $0.45-$0.50 although it'll spike up once a while with heavy volume, esp. aro' Mid and Full Year Reporting time when investors expects Metro to declare a special dividend (due to large cash hoard).

This study will examine the following,

  1. Is Metro undervalued ?
  2. Will Metro return its large cash hoard to shareholders ?

This study will be continuously updated as and when data is available.

Financial Data

All the data in this case study are extracted fm the Metro 2005 Annual Report. Some of the figures in the fllwg table are extracted fm the periodical "Shares Investment",

Metro20012002200320042005Q106Q206Q306
Margin (%)10.5313.3118.9896.1219.85???
ROE (%)2.824.836.5142.795.10???
DIV (S$)0.0090.010.020.170.02------------------
EPS (S$)0.03460.04250.06100.35290.04920.01750.19150.0093
Turnover (S$M)258.1259.8254.3233.1203.749.2342.26660.966
NTA / Share (S$)0.840.880.940.820.97100.3101.2101.5
Cash + Bank Bal (S$M)???229.8144.4191.7269.92264.32
Short Term Investment (S$M)???29.244.475.367.43263.658
Current Liabilities - Bank Borrowings (S$M)???32.562.356.262.71956.317
Long Term Bank Borrowings (S$M)???47.133.245.644.21989.311
Net Current Asset (S$M)???253.1170.3223.9284.679269.793

Issued Shares = 630,776,676 @ $0.20 Par

Note (1) : Bonus Issue 1-for-5 on 22-Aug-02 ;
Note (2) : 2004 (Mar04 is Financial Year End) has extraordinary gains fm Ngee Ann City
Note (3) : S$86.72M (~$0.1375 cash/share) to be realised fm disposal of Junior Bonds n Pref Shares

Q206 Results

Summary

Review

Going Forward

Q106 Results

Summary

Q106 Review

Highlights : 2005 Result

Calculation on Cash/Share

Comments

Conclusion

The question is thus whether u see Metro as a Retail or Investment Property co. If Retail, then yes, it's hard to understand why they are sitting on so much cash. They don't need a lot of cash to expand their Retail biz, unless they want to own the Retail space. If you view Metro as more of a Property Investment co., then they do need a lot of cash to invest in properties (can of course also use borrowings but will incur interest expenses).

Their recent devt do point towards the latter and I don't expect Metro to return a lot of cash to the shareholders unless they run out of properties to invest in or they decide to inject their investment properties into an REIT (current mkt fever).

Note : In their Circular to Shareholders regarding the disposal of these bonds and pref shares, on the 'Use of net proceeds', there's no mention of paying any special div to shareholders. They did mention,

"In line with the current focus and strategic direction of the Group, such investments would be mainly in property or property-related concerns."

My Expections : Metro to pay a special div fm the recent sale of Junior bonds n pref shares to appease shareholders

If so, expect Metro share price to drop accordingly. In 2003, was aro' $0.65~$0.75 (hi $0.85 or so) but dropped by aro' $0.15 after it went xd.

Possible Future Scenarios :

  1. Metro spins off Property Assets as a different entity. Previously, Hai Sun Hup, who was mainly in Shipping, invested in Australia Hotels till their portfolio was large enough to spin it off as Stamford Land. Hai Sun Hup was also renamed as Singapore Shipping Corporation.
    Comment - May be a good thing as shareholders can realign to their preferred hldgs


  2. Metro sells off Retail assets to focus on Property Investments biz or vice versa.
    Comment - If it fetches a good premium, will be good for shareholders


  3. Ong family sells off their stake in Metro
    Comment - Most unlikely to happen in the short term. If this happens, most likely will be good for shareholders as the new owner will help to unlock and realise the value of Metro

My Action

In 2003, I did several buy/sell transactions of $0.63~$0.745 and am currently hldg 2 leftover purchases of $0.745 (21-Jul-03) and $0.705 (26-Aug-03). So, at average cost of $0.725 less $0.15 special div, I am 'underwater' based on cost of $0.575 vs $0.52 (mkt price).

Now, I'll hv to decide whether to buy more for long term hold (reasonable ~4% yield and potential upside as it's 40%+ discount to NAV with lots of cash) or to average my cost down and then sell all my hldgs when mkt over-reacts due to expectation of special div :D

Update : As Metro did not declare a special interim special div, I expect the share price to correct (even tho' it's undervalued) and sold off part of my hldgs @ $0.625 on 14-Nov-05. I plan to accumulate again if it drops below $0.60.

Important Dates

Announcements

  1. 20-May : Full Year Result and Dividend Announcement ($0.515)
  2. 3-May : Acceptance by ERGO for sale of Bonds and Pref Shares
  3. 3-May : Joint Announcement with HPL on decision not to proceed on IR bid. Price plunge to $0.51
  4. 26-Apr : Joint Announcement with HPL on invitation to bid for IR. Price hit peak of $0.575
  5. 22-Apr : Disposal of Bonds and Pref Shares. Hit high of $0.545
  6. 19-Apr : Offer by Suntec for Bonds and Pref Shares. Rise to $0.53
  7. 15-Apr : Query by SGX on high trading volume. Rise to $0.52
  8. 7-Feb : Q3 Financial Statements and Div
  9. 10-Nov-04 : Q2 Financial Statements and Div

Metro - 3mth Chart

Metro - 1Yr Chart

Disclaimer
: Use the above at your own risk! We'll not be responsible for any losses incurred but you can give us credit if you make money :D