Saturday, September 24, 2005
REITs
Note :
- Original post was created in Jul-05, some of the contents may not have been updated.
- I'll stop updating this post on a weekly basis and will now do it on a quarterly basis, after the quarterly reporting period, to reflect the latest in REITs.
Background
During the past couple of years or so, interest in REITs had been very high, with good capital gains made by unit holders in all the REITs. After a decline in REITs prices in my last update on 6-Jan (CMT new units issue were even undersubscribed), most hv recovered (except MMP)and even reached new highs. MLT, AREIT, CMT and CCT continues with their acquisitions while new REITs (ART 1-for-5 issue @ $0.68 to Ascott s/h , Keppel 1-for-5 issue to Kepland s/h and AllCo IPO @ $1) will soon make their mkt presence.
But, as local REITs are very much still growing up from its infancy stage, I believe money can still be made by being selective on our investments.
MapleTree, CCT, A-REIT still have room to grow locally, but CMT and even MapleTree will likely move up to the next level and expand overseas soon. Local competition-wise, REITs in shopping malls is currently the most intense, with CMT vs Suntec vs Prime and new REIT (CentrePoint) coming on-line soon. CCT will have to face off KepLand this year in the Office Bldgs arena and we may see others like UOL coming in. A-REIT will also likely face off Cambridge REIT (group of private Industrial Property owners being organised by Finian Tan) soon. I wonder if we'll see some mergers in the longer run.
Other countries like HK and Malaysia are also taking the cue fm S'pore's success and are launching their own REITs. I'm sure this will impact our mkt in the longer term as foreign investors start to switch their funds out of S'pore for more attractive yields and growth prospects of foreign REITs. Lastly, watch the bank interest rate very closely as this will strongly affect the price of REITs. With coupon rate for both 3-mths T-Bills at 2.67%, my personal thoughts on Risk vs Yield have been adjusted up by 0.5% on 6-Jan-06,
- More than 5.75% : Comfort Zone
- 5.25-5.75% : Calculated Risk Area
- 4.75-5.25% : Playing with Fire
- Less than 4.75% : Playing with your Life :D
At its peak in 2005, REITs accounted for 60% of my profits and forms more than 40% of my portfolio. But, with the danger seen in increasing interest rates, I hv reduced my exposure to REITs. At end-2005, REIT accounted for ~45% of my profit and forms ~17% of my portfolio. I don't expect to be able to replicate the same profit level in 2006 and will be maintaining REITs at aro' 20% of my portfolio, more as a defensive measure.
Yield Data
Data for S'pore listed REITs are as fllws,
REIT | Period | DPU (cents) | Mkt Price | Annualised Yield | NAV | Assets Type |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CMT | Q3 : End-Sep '05 | 2.55 | S$2.29 | 4.454% | $1.52 | Shopping Malls |
CCT | Q3 : End-Sep '05 | 1.81 | S$1.52 | 4.763% | $1.58 | Office Buildings |
MapleTree | Q3 : End-Sep '05 | 4.47 | S$1.00 | 4.492% | $0.57 | Industrial Buildings - Logistics Warehouses |
A-REIT | Q2 : End-Sep '05 | 2.91 | S$2.00 | 5.820% | $1.21 | Industrial Buildings - Factories |
Suntec | Q4 : End-Sep '05 | 1.605 | S$1.10 | 5.836% | $1.06 | Shopping Malls + Office Bldgs |
Fortune | Q3 : End-Sep '05 | HK8.247 | HK$5.75 | 5.737% | HK$6.68 | HK Shopping Malls |
MMP | NA | NA | S$0.95 | 5.284% | S$1.03 | Shopping Malls + Office Bldgs |
NOTE : Mkt Price is as on 6-Jan-06
Results Announcements (Not Updated)
- Suntec : 26-Jul after mkt close. DPU 1.561cts for Q3 ($1.18->$1.21)
- Fortune : 27-Jul after mkt close. DPU HK8.25cts for Q2 (HK$6.65->HK$6.50)
Dividends xd (Not Updated)
- 25-Jul : A-REIT ($2.37-> $2.36)
- 28-Jul : CCT ($1.53->$1.55)
- 29-Jul : CMT ($2.64->$2.59)
- 2-Aug : Suntec ($1.19->$1.19)
Other Dates (Not Updated)
- 27-Jul : A-REIT announces acquisition of 9 properties at $271.7Mil ($2.33->$2.31)
- 28-Jul : MapleTree starts trading ($0.68->$0.885)
- 17-Aug : Prime lodged draft prospectus. Price $0.93-$0.98 for min yield 5.12%
- 25-Aug : A-REIT announces acquisition of 3 properties at $70.25Mil ($2.20)
- 25-Aug : A-REIT 1-for-20 Preferential Offer
- 1-Sep : A-REIT announces acquisition at $34.8Mil ($2.26-$2.29)
- 13-Sep : Prime launches IPO @ $0.98 after 5pm
- 15-Sep : A-REIT xo ($2.24 -> $2.23)
- 16-Sep : CMT 1-for-10 + New Shares, xo in 12-Oct
- 19-Sep : Prime starts trading fm 2pm ($0.98 -> $1.05)
- Q4-05 (?) : Link REIT (in HK) launches IPO
- 2006 : KepLand launches Office REIT
- 2006 (?) : CentrePoint REIT launches IPO
Comments
- CMT - Yield is 4.454% @ $2.29. Price recovered during the past weeks after dropping close to $2 previously due to the under-subscription of new units in Nov-05. Although the yield have improved from less than 4% previously, the risk is still high for me, esp since NAV is only $1.52 (greatly improved from $1.30 previously). The only way for them to improve the yield is either for the price to drop further or to expand with yield accretive acquisitions (not that many quality shopping malls left). China ones fm Capitaland may be spun off as a separate REIT. The full impact of the acquisitions of Bugis Junction and Jurong Entertainment complex will be seen in the coming quarter.
- CCT - Yield is 4.763% @ $1.52. Price hv been steady for quite a while now. I guess they may do some acquisitions soon as there are still many quality office bldgs aro'. Can consider to accumulate some if prices drop below $1.45. But, competition will come this year when Kepland launces their own Office REIT.
- MapleTree - Yield is 4.492% @ $1.00. Prices hv firmed up to aro' $1 recently. Hv been on an acquisition trail since IPO both locally and overseas. With NAV at $0.57, the risk to me is still very high. Best for speculative play.
- A-REIT - Yield is 5.820% @ $2.00. Prices hv been recovering recently after touching a low of $1.7x. At NAV of $1.21, premium to NAV is still high. Can consider to buy some if yield is above 6%.
- Suntec - Yield is 5.836% @ $1.10. Prices hv recovered after touching a low of $1 due to the failed deal with CDL. This is largely due to Capital Group accumulating in the open market and crossing the 5% holding level. Acquisition fm Wing Tai hv proceeded and Suntec will also acquire CHIJMES fm LKH, both being funded with debts. With the increasing interest rate, hv to be careful of REITs.
- MMP - Yield is 5.284% @ $0.95. Newly listed on 19-Sep at $0.98, hit intraday high of $1.13 before dropping to current level.
- Fortune - Yield is 5.737% @ HK$5.75. Price hv weakened since Link IPO was launched in HK. With more choices of REITs in HK, Fortune hv become unattractive.
Disclaimer : The above are my own opinions only. Do not rely on it for your investment decisions
CMT prepares for eventual overseas property foray
China, Japan are likely targets when the Singapore market is saturated
CAPITAMALL Trust (CMT) - whose shopping centre portfolio has grown from $890 million to $3.3 billion since listing three years ago - has plans to look beyond Singapore. But for now, its focus will still be on the Singapore market as it seeks to achieve a portfolio size of $4-5 billion within the next three years.
The longer term plan for the shopping centre trust is to eye overseas mall acquisitions, particularly in China and Japan.
'We have got enough confirmation from unit-holders that they are not averse to CMT owning foreign properties,' Pua Seck Guan, CEO of CapitaMall Trust Management Ltd, manager of CMT, told reporters yesterday after a briefing to announce plans by the trust to seek unit-holders' approval to raise over $400 million to help pay for its recent acquisition of Parco Bugis Junction mall.
'Everybody knows Singapore is a small market. So we may have to look beyond Singapore after the next few years. We have to think long term for CMT, and acquiring overseas properties will not be an agenda adverse to CMT. And in the region, the big opportunities are in China and Japan,' said Mr Pua.
A natural pipeline of acquisition would be parent CapitaLand's investments in China. CapitaLand has a tie-up to invest in malls in China developed by Shenzhen International Trust & Investment Company (Szitic) and anchored by US retailing giant Wal-Mart.
By end-2010, the plan is to have at least 100 malls across China. As for the upcoming equity-raising exercise, existing CMT unit-holders will be given a one-for-10 preferential offer and that, too, at a discount of up to one per cent from the issue price of the units.
However, parent CapitaLand will not be taking up its entitlement to help boost the trust's free float and liquidity. The exercise should reduce CapitaLand's stake in the trust from 38.7 per cent to 33 per cent.
Existing unit-holders will be offered about 73.9 million of the total of about 172.7 million new units that CMT is planning to issue. The remaining 98.8 million units will comprise an offer to the public through DBS Bank ATMs as well as a private placement to retail and institutional investors.
Unit-holders will vote on the equity raising, the Parco Bugis Junction acquisition and other matters at an extraordinary general meeting on Oct 6.
The equity fund raising, which is underwritten by DBS Bank and UBS, is expected to begin latest by end-October.
The issue price will be determined closer to the date when equity raising begins.
The equity raising will partially finance CMT's recent acquisitions of Parco Bugis Junction and Jurong Entertainment Centre as well as bridge loans taken for the trust's purchase of Sembawang Shopping Centre and Hougang Plaza earlier this year.
CMT also aims to borrow up to $433 million through a seven-year term loan facility.
The four recent acquisitions will be yield accretive to unit-holders.
Parco Bugis Junction's stabilised property yield for next year of 5.3 per cent is higher than the 4.3 per cent current consolidated implied property yield for the trust's existing five properties, comprising Tampines Mall, Junction 8, Plaza Singapura, IMM Building and Funan DigitaLife Mall.
Unit-holders can expect a higher distribution per unit (DPU) of 10.65 cents in 2005, and 10.88 cents in 2006 following the recent four acquisitions, representing improvements of 5.1 and 5.8 per cent respectively from CMT's revised DPU forecast of 10.13 cents for 2005 and 10.28 cents in 2006 from the existing five assets.
CMT officials also highlighted the future growth profile of all their assets from asset enhancements - like decanting space on higher floors of malls and transferring it to lower floors which can command higher rents, changing mall layout and improving tenancy mix to extract higher rentals.
And some of the malls - Jurong Entertainment Centre, Hougang Plaza and Sembawang Shopping Centre - have utilised plot ratios (ratio of maximum gross floor area to land area) that are significantly lower than those of neighbouring sites.
CMT has made applications to the authorities to tap higher plot ratios and if these are granted, it could embark on redeveloping the properties - provided such schemes are more yield accretive than the current planned asset enhancement works which would be on a smaller scale.
Unlocking value at Bugis Junction
CAPITAMALL Trust Management Ltd chief executive Pua Seck Guan says he is not averse to the mall's anchor tenant Seiyu department store moving out of Parco Bugis Junction mall when its rental review comes up in April 2007, as that would enable CMT to unlock the value of the property.
Seiyu occupies about 57 per cent of the mall, paying a monthly rental of $4-$5 psf, which weighs down current average rental rate at the mall to just $8 psf - or 37 per cent lower than the average rate at CMT's Tampines Mall, Junction 8 and Plaza Singapura.
Seiyu has a long-term lease expiring in April 2015 with a four-year rental review. But Seiyu does not need to quit the mall before CMT can start 'unlocking the value' of some of the space it occupies. All the trust wants as a first step is to lay its hands on the space in the basement and specialty areas on part of level one that Seiyu currently sub-lets to other tenants and concessionaires. CMT can then directly lease out these areas at higher, market rentals. Doing this can generate an additional $2.2 million a year in rental revenue.
A step closer to Reit for Finian Tan?
CSE in sale and leaseback deal with firm linked with venture capitalist
A $7.5 MILLION property deal announced yesterday demonstrates that venture capitalist Finian Tan is working towards establishing his planned independent real estate investment trust (Reit).
In June, Dr Tan told BT that he would do so through Harvard Fund Management, in which his private equity firm Vickers Financial Group had a stake. In early July the company changed its name, re-emerging as Cambridge Real Estate Investment Management (Creim).
Yesterday, mainboard-listed systems integrator CSE Global said that it has entered into a proposed sale and leaseback agreement with Creim to dispose of its leasehold building at 2 Ubi View.
Under the $7.5 million deal, CSE will sell the building to Creim and lease it back for 10 years.
Commenting on the proposed purchase, Creim CEO Chan Wang Kin said: 'The building is a quality building, well located in the central Ubi Industrial Estate. It is a good tenant with a long 10-year lease. This, in turn, will provide the planned Cambridge industrial Reit good stable income and add to the attractiveness of the Reit portfolio.''
CSE's rent will be $536,000 during the first year. At the start of the fourth and seventh year of the lease term, the rental increase will be at the fixed rate of 7 per cent above the preceding year's rent.
In its filing to the Singapore Exchange, CSE said the proposed sale is subject to the 'listing and quotation of the proposed industrial real estate investment trust (Reit) on SGX-ST'.
Earlier reports have quoted Creim as targeting a portfolio worth $500 million. If this proposed listing is successful, it will be Singapore's eighth Reit. The other seven are Suntec, Fortune, CapitaMall, CapitaCommercial, Ascendas, and Mapletree, as well as Prime, which debuts today.
CSE added that the proposed sale of the property is expected to improve and enhance its financial position. It intends to use the sale proceeds towards paying off some of its $56.2 million in bank borrowing.
It also estimates that with the completion of the sale the group's net gearing position will fall to 0.4, from 0.5 as at the end of March.
CSE states that the sale is not expected to disrupt its normal business operations as the lease agreement will 'provide CSE with continuous use of the property'.
CSE last month announced a 5 per cent drop in net profit to $3.685 million for the three months to June 30. Its stock closed 1 cent lower, at $0.785 yesterday.
Ascendas REIT is planning to raise up to S$240 million to partly fund the acquisition of 12 properties.
This includes an issue of up to 103.1 million new units to raise some S$217 million.
The units will be priced between $2.10 and $2.15 each.
The offer comprises a preferential offering of up to 64.5 million units to existing unit holders on a non-renounceable basis of one new unit for every 20 existing units.
There is also a private placement of the balance to retail and institutional investors.
In addition, up to 11.2 million new units will be issued to Ascendas Land to partly finance the acquisition of Techview.
A-REIT closed at $2.19 a unit in trade on Tuesday. - CNA/ir
A preferential offering of between 58.5 million and 64.5 million new Units to Singapore Registered Unitholders on a non-renounceable basis of 1 new Unit for every 20 existing Units held on the Books Closure Date, (fractions of a new unit to be disregarded and subject to the rounding mechanism), will commence on 23 September 2005 at the issue price of S$2.13 per new Unit.
Said Mr Tan Ser Ping, Chief Executive Officer of the Manager, “We are very pleased with the strong support from both existing and new investors for the private placement. We believe the preferential offering to our existing unitholders is attractively priced and rewards them for their continued support. We will continue to strive to deliver predictable distributions and capital stability to our unitholders.”
The new Units will rank equally in all respects with the then existing Units, including the right to any distributions which may be paid for that period from the date the new Units are issued (expected to be 5 October 2005) to 31 December 2005 as well as all distributions thereafter.
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